CA
Sprinter launching out of the starting blocks at sunset

Current watchlist scenario · LA28

Medals

An editorial scenario for our current watchlist, not a complete forecast for all of Team Canada. Each row represents one event medal; athletes can win more than one.

Total
10
Gold
5
Silver
3
Bronze
2

Medal projections

  1. Summer McIntosh

    Swimming

    400 m individual medley

    Gold
  2. Summer McIntosh

    Swimming

    200 m butterfly

    Gold
  3. Summer McIntosh

    Swimming

    200 m individual medley

    Gold
  4. Ethan Katzberg

    Athletics

    Hammer throw

    Gold
  5. Camryn Rogers

    Athletics

    Hammer throw

    Gold
  6. Christa Deguchi

    Judo

    −57 kg

    Silver
  7. Marco Arop

    Athletics

    800 m

    Silver
  8. Josh Liendo

    Swimming

    100 m butterfly

    Silver
  9. Ilya Kharun

    Swimming

    100 m butterfly

    Bronze
  10. Ilya Kharun

    Swimming

    200 m butterfly

    Bronze

These medal colours are editorial projections, not confirmed results. Selection, qualification, injuries and the field may change the outlook.

Medal contenders

Athletes on the watchlist 36

Gold contender

Swimming

Summer McIntosh

200 fly · 200 IM · 400 IM · 400 free

Résumé
Paris 2024: 3 gold, 1 silver
Age at LA28
21

Now training under Bob Bowman and still setting world records. Projected as Canada's headline act with a realistic shot at multiple golds.

Projected medal chance97%
Gold contender

Athletics

Ethan Katzberg

Hammer throw

Résumé
Paris 2024 gold · 2023 world champion
Age at LA28
26

Entering his peak throwing years as the event's benchmark. Consistency over 80 m makes him a heavy favourite to defend.

Projected medal chance88%
Gold contender

Athletics

Camryn Rogers

Hammer throw

Résumé
Paris 2024 gold · 2023 world champion
Age at LA28
29

Completed Canada's historic hammer double in Paris. Experience and championship composure keep her at the front of the field.

Projected medal chance82%
Podium threat

Judo

Christa Deguchi

−57 kg

Résumé
Paris 2024 gold
Age at LA28
32

Canada's first Olympic judo champion. Projection factors in a deep weight class and the demands of another four-year cycle.

Projected medal chance70%
Podium threat

Athletics

Marco Arop

800 m

Résumé
Paris 2024 silver · 2023 world champion
Age at LA28
29

Front-running style that has already won a world title. In the fastest 800 m era ever, a medal is in reach every championship.

Projected medal chance66%
Podium threat

Swimming

Josh Liendo

100 fly · 100 free · relays

Résumé
Paris 2024 silver, 100 fly
Age at LA28
25

Sprint specialist in his prime by LA. Also anchors Canada's men's relay ambitions.

Projected medal chance64%
Podium threat

Swimming

Ilya Kharun

100 fly · 200 fly

Résumé
Paris 2024: 2 bronze
Age at LA28
23

First Canadian man on an Olympic swimming podium since 2012. Still improving, with room to climb from bronze.

Projected medal chance62%

More medal hopefuls

Additional athletes to watch; not counted in the projected total.

Breakout watch

Athletics

Christopher Morales Williams

400 m · 4×400 relay

Résumé
Canadian 400 m record, 44.05 (2024)
Age at LA28
24

Former NCAA champion who ran one of the world's fastest times before Paris. Needs to translate speed into a final.

Projected medal chance41%
Breakout watch

Athletics

Audrey Leduc

100 m · 4×100 relay

Résumé
Canadian 100 m record holder (2024)
Age at LA28
29

Broke the national record in 2024. A strong women's sprint relay could be her clearest route to a medal.

Projected medal chance30%
Breakout watch

Swimming

Alexanne Lepage

200 breaststroke

Résumé
2026 Pan Pacific champion, 200 breast
Age at LA28
22

Shocked the field in Irvine by beating Kate Douglass for her first senior international title. Says LA 2028 is the goal.

Projected medal chance36%
Breakout watch

Surfing

Erin Brooks

Shortboard

Résumé
2023 ISA World Surfing Games silver
Age at LA28
20

Teen prodigy known for aerial surfing. LA's Lower Trestles break could suit her progressive style.

Projected medal chance38%
Breakout watch

Track cycling

Dylan Bibic

Omnium · Elimination

Résumé
2022 world champion, scratch race
Age at LA28
26

Illness hurt his Paris debut. A healthy run through this cycle puts him back among the endurance medal hopes.

Projected medal chance34%
Breakout watch

Triathlon

Mathis Beaulieu

Individual · Mixed relay

Résumé
Project Podium athlete
Age at LA28
—

Chasing his first Olympic berth in the qualification window that opened in 2026. A long shot, but one to follow.

Projected medal chance15%
Gold contender

Canoe sprint

Katie Vincent

C1 200 m · C2 500 m

Résumé
Paris 2024 gold, C1 200 m
Age at LA28
—

A proven Olympic medallist on our LA28 watchlist. Qualification and current form will determine the outlook.

Projected medal chance72%
Podium threat

Weightlifting

Maude Charron

61 kg

Résumé
Paris 2024 silver
Age at LA28
—

A proven Olympic medallist on our LA28 watchlist. Qualification and current form will determine the outlook.

Projected medal chance55%
Podium threat

Fencing

Eleanor Harvey

Foil

Résumé
Paris 2024 bronze
Age at LA28
—

A proven Olympic medallist on our LA28 watchlist. Qualification and current form will determine the outlook.

Projected medal chance48%
Podium threat

Taekwondo

Skylar Park

−57 kg

Résumé
Paris 2024 bronze
Age at LA28
—

A proven Olympic medallist on our LA28 watchlist. Qualification and current form will determine the outlook.

Projected medal chance45%
Podium threat

Trampoline

Sophiane Méthot

Individual

Résumé
Paris 2024 bronze
Age at LA28
—

A proven Olympic medallist on our LA28 watchlist. Qualification and current form will determine the outlook.

Projected medal chance46%
Podium threat

Beach volleyball

Melissa Humana-Paredes

Pairs

Résumé
Won Paris 2024 silver with Brandie Wilkerson
Age at LA28
—

A team-event medal depends on the whole lineup. Individual athletes do not count as separate medals in our total.

Projected medal chance50%
Podium threat

Beach volleyball

Brandie Wilkerson

Pairs

Résumé
Won Paris 2024 silver with Melissa Humana-Paredes
Age at LA28
—

A team-event medal depends on the whole lineup. Individual athletes do not count as separate medals in our total.

Projected medal chance50%
Podium threat

Diving

Rylan Wiens

10 m platform · 10 m synchro

Résumé
Paris 2024 bronze, men's 10 m synchro
Age at LA28
—

A proven Olympic medallist on our LA28 watchlist. Qualification and current form will determine the outlook.

Projected medal chance40%
Podium threat

Rowing

Avalon Wasteneys

Women's eight

Résumé
Paris 2024 silver
Age at LA28
—

A team-event medal depends on the whole lineup. Individual athletes do not count as separate medals in our total.

Projected medal chance42%
Podium threat

Athletics

Andre De Grasse

100 m · 200 m · 4×100 m

Résumé
Paris 2024 relay gold; 2025 worlds team
Age at LA28
—

A proven Olympic medallist on our LA28 watchlist. Qualification and current form will determine the outlook.

Projected medal chance38%
Podium threat

Athletics

Jerome Blake

100 m · 200 m · 4×100 m

Résumé
Paris 2024 relay gold; 2025 worlds team
Age at LA28
—

A team-event medal depends on the whole lineup. Individual athletes do not count as separate medals in our total.

Projected medal chance35%
Podium threat

Athletics

Sarah Mitton

Shot put

Résumé
2023 world silver; 2025 worlds team
Age at LA28
—

An additional medal hopeful, not an event-level medal pick yet. Our estimate depends on qualification and championship form.

Projected medal chance56%
Podium threat

Athletics

Pierce LePage

Decathlon

Résumé
2023 world champion; named to 2025 worlds team
Age at LA28
—

An additional medal hopeful, not an event-level medal pick yet. Our estimate depends on qualification and championship form.

Projected medal chance42%
Breakout watch

Athletics

Savannah Sutherland

400 m hurdles · 4×400 m

Résumé
2025 worlds selection, 400 m hurdles and relay
Age at LA28
—

An additional medal hopeful, not an event-level medal pick yet. Our estimate depends on qualification and championship form.

Projected medal chance35%
Podium threat

Swimming

Mary-Sophie Harvey

200 free · 200 IM · 200 breast

Résumé
2025 world silver, 200 m IM
Age at LA28
—

An additional medal hopeful, not an event-level medal pick yet. Our estimate depends on qualification and championship form.

Projected medal chance40%
Breakout watch

Swimming

Finlay Knox

200 IM · 100 free

Résumé
Selected for Canada's 2026 Pan Pacific team
Age at LA28
—

An additional medal hopeful, not an event-level medal pick yet. Our estimate depends on qualification and championship form.

Projected medal chance28%
Podium threat

Judo

Jessica Klimkait

−63 kg

Résumé
Won the 2026 Pan American title at −63 kg
Age at LA28
—

An additional medal hopeful, not an event-level medal pick yet. Our estimate depends on qualification and championship form.

Projected medal chance45%
Breakout watch

BMX racing

Molly Simpson

BMX racing

Résumé
Won Canada's first BMX Racing World Cup gold in 2025
Age at LA28
—

An additional medal hopeful, not an event-level medal pick yet. Our estimate depends on qualification and championship form.

Projected medal chance38%
Breakout watch

Road cycling

Derek Gee

Road race · time trial

Résumé
2025 Canadian road race champion
Age at LA28
—

An additional medal hopeful, not an event-level medal pick yet. Our estimate depends on qualification and championship form.

Projected medal chance25%
Breakout watch

Artistic gymnastics

Félix Dolci

All-around · team

Résumé
Qualified for the all-around final at the 2025 Worlds
Age at LA28
—

An additional medal hopeful, not an event-level medal pick yet. Our estimate depends on qualification and championship form.

Projected medal chance20%
Podium threat

Basketball

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Men

Résumé
Paris 2024 Olympian
Age at LA28
—

A team-event medal depends on the whole lineup. Individual athletes do not count as separate medals in our total.

Projected medal chance38%
Podium threat

Soccer

Jessie Fleming

Women

Résumé
Tokyo 2020 gold
Age at LA28
—

A team-event medal depends on the whole lineup. Individual athletes do not count as separate medals in our total.

Projected medal chance30%
Podium threat

Rugby sevens

Carissa Norsten

Women

Résumé
Paris 2024 silver
Age at LA28
—

A team-event medal depends on the whole lineup. Individual athletes do not count as separate medals in our total.

Projected medal chance40%